Uber Arbiter drop rates
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So i killed 500+, maybe even 600+ uber arbiters and the drop rates of the prism of belief just don't make sense to me.
From some sources i heard it's around 26% then other people did some testing and it was 8-9% (which i don't believe it is considering the price of the unidentified jewel compared to entrance price). I would assume it's closer to 20% than to 10% considering it's "uber" + drop rate in previous seasons was 21%~ on highest difficulty. The weird thing i noticed is that i rarely had steady drop rate of these jewels (so let's say i do 20 runs - i loot 3-5, then another 20 runs, another 3-5). It was absurdly often i had dry streaks of like 10-15 to then get 3-4 in 6-7. Or i got 13 in 40 runs and then i got 2 in 40. I know it can happen and it should happen but the frequency was just too high. During these 500+ runs i had at least 5 dry streaks of 20+ arbiters of no prism drop. Even counting the drop rate to be 20% it's 1,15% chance to get dry streak of 20. So this happening 5+ times in 500+ runs just doesn't make sense at all. Can we get the info of the real drop rate? And if the drop rate is fixed? Or is it being changed from day to day because my experience (tinfoil hat on) just makes me believe that. Zuletzt angestoßen am 09.11.2025, 12:50:06
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Lets say you flip a coin 99 times and get heads 99 times in a row
Do you believe that on 100th flip you're guaranteed to get tails? That's how your post reads. p.s. you are not guaranteed tails on 100th flip : ) |
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[Removed by Support]
The post is about how the eventual average drop rate was driven by "anomalies" in drop rate. It is extremely unlikely to go multiple 20+ streaks of not hitting and then going back close to average with another set of extremely unlikely streaks of hits. The average at the end was something between 16-19% drop rate so i'm not bragging about not profitting. It's just the experience of the farm which felt off. If the drop rate is fixed than i'd like to know what it is. If the drop rate changes day by day then i'd also like to know, even though it sucks because how on earth would this boss be attractive to farm if you go into unlucky streak and loot 3 jewels out of 40 arbiter runs (like i did). It shouldn't be the farm that you have to get 500 divines to even start thinking about profitting eventually. Zuletzt bearbeitet von JC_GGG#0000 um 05.11.2025, 09:48:56
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Drop rates rarely ever change. Usually some tweaks come with launch of new league or a hotfix on an obvious outlier. But no hidden "when the sun reaches high noon make unique jewels more/less common" type stuff.
To get a proper sampling of drop rates, I'd want 300 - 3000(daily if trying to test day to day change) points of data to quiet the rng noise and see the trend. 20 runs isn't really enough to confidently estimate a days drop rate (assuming it does vary) in short, RNG gonna RNG. "Beidat honored the pact, though Mancy wouldn't take off Doryani’s prototype."
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" This. I've had days I swear GGG has been effing with me and that the drip rates are totally flipped on their heads. But the next day they're back to normal. When in reality it's just RNG hitting a series of outliers that seem, in small sample, to depict a trend. Just last week I ran 20 maps got like 8 raw div drops which was about what I had come to expect give or take. Ran 20 maps a day later dropped no divs but 5 perfect exalts and a perfect chaos...which seemed like a really weird and consistent change to the loot pool that my brain had trouble rationalizing. But next day it was back to normal. It was just a really wild coincidence. |
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I think Uber Arbiter should drop a "fiery arse" which you can put in your HO and feed it with hot stuff to get random loot in your hideout.
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" Your numbers are what you would expect tho. You said you had 5 streaks with 20+ arbiters with no drop. Since you broke it simply down to streaks of 20 I will do the same. You said you had 5 of those in 500 games. Okay. So you already calculated that there is a 1.15% chance for 20 runs to be a failure. Now, 500 runs are equivalent to 481 series of 20 arbiter runs. So we have a binomial distribution with 481 attemps and a success probability of 1.15%. For these parameters we get an expected number of successes of 5.53, meaning you expect 5.53 series of 20 arbiter runs with no drop. |
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